Smolar
Friday night represents the start of a significant moment in history for the sport of college football and their fans as the playoffs will be played under the new 12-team format for the first time. The first round this weekend will be played on the campuses of the higher seed, also a first in CFP history. Here is a look into the first round games, starting with Friday night’s battle for Indiana between the Hoosiers and Notre Dame:
No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame, Friday at 8 p.m.
Two teams separated by a three-hour car drive will start the CFP with their first matchup since 1991 to determine who will advance to meet No. 2 seeded Georgia in the quarterfinals on New Year’s Day. The two squads have enjoyed very successful seasons to this point, both going 11-1 while looking like some of the most complete teams in the country for most of the season.
Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are making their first ever appearance in the CFP after winning just nine total games between 2021 and 2023. An explosive offense led by Kurtis Rourke, Justice Ellison and Elijiah Sarratt helped get them here as they are averaging an insane 43.3 points per game and have scored at least 30 points 10 times this year. A stingy defense allowing just 14.7 points per contest has also helped tremendously.
For the Irish, their inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois seems like it was a lifetime ago. They have blown out just about everybody else on their way to earning the No. 7 spot in the tournament. Their 4-0 mark this year against ranked opponents and 44.1 points per game average (margin of victory is average of 30.7 points per game) since that loss should be proof that they are a different club than the one who took the field that day.
If Indiana hopes to pull the upset, they have to find a way to prevent Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and the Notre Dame offense from controlling the game the way they have gotten so used to doing during their 10-game winning streak. They are also going to have to overcome a 13-game losing streak to ranked opponents. This includes a 38-15 blowout loss to Ohio State a few weeks ago in their only game against a ranked opponent this season.
The pick: depending on where you look, the spread favors the Irish by about seven or eight points. The lack of familiarity between the two teams may lead to a period where they need to figure each other out and thus result in a bit of a slugfest. That said, Notre Dame has proven they can beat ranked teams consistently while Indiana cannot say the same. South Bend is going to be rocking on Friday night and they will watch their team advance, though expect the Hoosiers to give them a tough test and keep the game within the spread.
No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State, Saturday at noon
Unlike the last matchup, these two teams are not at all close to one another proximity wise. In fact, this is the one first round matchup where a southern team has to travel north and is set to play in “cold” conditions (expected to be about 25 degrees at kickoff).
Both teams are coming off narrow losses in their respective conference championship games. The Nittany Lions lost by eight to No. 1 seeded Oregon while the Mustangs fell on a last second field goal in the ACC title game to No. 12 Clemson. Both teams are also making their first CFP appearance in their program history.
Outside of Ohio State, Penn State might be under the most pressure during the tournament as they have built a reputation for being a good team that has typically been outperformed on the big stage as indicated by their 13-28 (1-2 this season) record against ranked opponents under James Franklin. The good news for him? One of the best receiving tight ends in the country is on his team.
Tyler Warren has been superb as a pass catcher with 88 receptions for 1,062 yards and six touchdowns. That is bad news for an SMU defense that has allowed 627 receiving yards to tight ends this year. With Penn State’s dynamic rushing duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen facing a stingy SMU rushing defense that allows just 93.4 rushing yards per game, Warren could have a huge role in deciding this game.
For SMU, Kevin Jennings is going to have to be special if they want to pull off an upset. Thankfully for them, Jennings is very good at creating plays off script and making plays out of thin air as evidenced by his 156.4 pass efficiency when pressured. That will be key against a Lions defense that has a very good defensive front.
The pick: if SMU can start fast, something they did not do against Clemson, they have a very real path to sending Penn State home with another heartbreaking loss. The Lions are favored by about eight depending on where you look. The Mustangs will keep the game close and give Penn State a real run for their money, but the Lions have been waiting for this moment for years. Penn State advances to face Boise State.
No. 12 Clemson @ No. 5 Texas, Saturday at 4 p.m.
The expanded CFP field gives us the first ever meeting between these two programs. For Clemson, that may not be a good thing, even coming off of an ACC title win against SMU. Their opponent on the other hand was just on the wrong end of a nail-biting SEC championship game against Georgia, who also beat them back in October.
For the Tigers, their win against SMU was their only victory over a ranked team, having lost to both Georgia in a blowout and to South Carolina. Another loss to Louisville back in early November raises questions about which version of this Clemson team will show up on any given week.
Texas is a bad matchup for Clemson as the Longhorns can gain chunk plays at any given moment. With 65 completions of over 20 yards this year, Texas should be able to make plays on a defense that has allowed 41 such plays this season.
If the Tigers are going to make this a contest, Cade Klubnik, who has accounted for 40 touchdowns this year, is going to have to put the offense on his back against a Longhorns defense that has allowed the lowest pass efficiency (83.8) in the FBS at home this year. The good news for Clemson is that Texas primarily plays zone defense, a defense that Klubnik is excellent against with 21 touchdown passes.
The pick: Texas is clearly the better team and the oddsmakers agree with the Longhorns being favored by 10-12 depending on where you look. They were a few plays away from possibly being SEC champions but should cruise to victory and advance to meet No. 4 seeded Arizona State in the quarterfinals.
No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ohio State, Saturday at 8 p.m.
No team is under bigger pressure this weekend than the Buckeyes. After losing to Michigan again, there are serious questions surrounding the job security of Head Coach Ryan Day if they were to fall flat on Saturday night. A loss would put them at a combined 2-8 against Michigan and CFP games.
Offensive line injuries could be a problem against a Volunteers defense that excels at stopping the run (allowing 99.6 yards per game which is 8th in the FBS). Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are a formidable running back tandem but could struggle to find lanes due to the matchup and personnel around them. Tennessee also ranks near the top of numerous important areas including third-down defense, red zone defense and scoring defense.
Make no mistake about it, Ohio State is the better team on paper. With multiple weeks to prepare for this game and a defense that has shut down just about everybody outside of Oregon this season, they should win this game if they play to their standards. As long as Will Howard, Jeremiah Smith and the rest of Ohio State’s offense comes to play, they’ll win this game. The problem is games aren’t played on paper.
The pick: until the Buckeyes prove they can handle the pressure with consistency, it’s hard to pick them in a big spot. Matchups and vibes matter in football and Tennessee’s defense has many of the same strengths as Michigan, who just beat Ohio State. The Volunteers pull off an upset and make Oregon fans happy that they won’t have to face the Buckeyes again, who only lost to them by one back in October.