Smolar

Smolar

The Carolina Panthers have undergone a lot of change since registering an NFL worst 2-15 record in 2023 as they look to take steps forward as a franchise heading into 2024. How will they do? Here’s my view of how their season will shake out week by week ahead of week 1:

Week 1: at New Orleans Saints

Loss (0-1): Division games are always tough no matter the records and can be tricky to predict in week 1. Carolina was swept by New Orleans a season ago; how improved will the Panthers be? Not enough to win their season opener after going winless on the road in 2023.

Week 2: vs Los Angeles Chargers

Loss (0-2): The Chargers are a tricky team to gauge heading into 2024. On one hand they hired Jim Harbaugh, which should instantly instill a winning culture. On the other, who is Justin Herbert going to throw to and how does he look returning from injury? This is a game Carolina could pull off an upset with LA having to travel quite a distance after what should be a physical matchup with the Raiders in their season opener. Still, Harbaugh’s experience should allow the Chargers to escape Charlotte with a win.

Week 3: at Las Vegas Raiders

Win (1-2): The Raiders seemed to turn a corner after Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels in the middle of last season. They had a good defense for the first time in what seems like forever and have some real stars on both sides of the ball in Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby. Still, Gardner Minshew leaves something to be desired and Carolina is due for a road win at some point. This game won’t be a cakewalk by any means but it’s one the Panthers are capable of winning.

Week 4: vs Cincinnati Bengals

Loss (1-3): I would pick Cincinnati even if Jake Browning was under center. Joe Burrow coming back should change everything for a team not far removed from a Super Bowl appearance. Burrow’s usual early season struggles should be done by week 4.

Week 5: at Chicago Bears

Loss (1-4): The Bears absolutely fleeced the Panthers in their 2023 trade and are reaping the benefits of it with Caleb Williams set up for immediate success. This should be a more entertaining matchup than the snooze fest from 2023 but Chicago simply looks better top to bottom.

Week 6: vs Atlanta Falcons

Win (2-4): Atlanta added Kirk Cousins in free agency and should be in contention to win the weak NFC South. Still, they are known for blowing games in ridiculous ways and dropping games they shouldn’t, like their week 15 matchup with the Panthers in 2023. Carolina steals one here.

Week 7: at Washington Commanders

Loss (2-5): This is a tricky game to predict. Washington has undergone a lot of change this offseason, notably firing Ron Rivera and drafting Jayden Daniels No. 2 overall in the draft. Neither of these teams are likely to be serious contenders in 2024 but very well could be in the near future if they build around their hopeful franchise QBs correctly. In a true toss up, the Commanders get the edge at home.

Week 8: at Denver Broncos

Win (3-5): Sean Payton did a solid job getting something out of Russell Wilson after he looked done for. That being said, Bo Nix isn’t likely to come in and immediately fix all of their problems like C.J. Stroud did in Houston.

Week 9: vs New Orleans Saints

Win (4-5): The Panthers played New Orleans tough at home last year in a 20-17 loss in week 2. They will have more kinks worked out by this point compared to week 1 and manage to get a split in their season series with the Saints.

Week 10: vs New York Giants (in Germany)

Win (5-5): Traveling to Munich will make this game tougher than it would otherwise be at Bank of America Stadium. Still, with New York likely to be in the NFC’s basement, Carolina gets a win in their lone national spotlight game of the season and heads into their bye week with some serious momentum.

Week 11: BYE

Carolina gets their bye week after traveling overseas and at a good time before a difficult, at least on paper, stretch to close out the season.

Week 12: vs Kansas City Chiefs

Loss (5-6): There are actually two things working in the Panthers’ favor for this game. For one, Kansas City has a road matchup in Buffalo the week before and two consecutive division games after their trip to Charlotte, making this a prime let down spot for the defending champs. Having a bye week before this game also is a big plus. Still, if Carolina pulled this off it would be the biggest upset of the NFL season.

Week 13: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Loss (5-7): The Bucs are the kings of the NFC South until proven otherwise and have had the Panthers’ number in recent years.

Week 14: at Philadelphia Eagles

Loss (5-8): Philly endured a massive collapse down the stretch in 2023 but added Saquon Barkley to a roster already loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Philly is also one of the tougher places in the league to play. The Eagles will take care of Carolina if they’re serious about rebounding.

Week 15: vs Dallas Cowboys

Loss (5-9): Dallas dominated the Panthers 33-10 at Bank of America Stadium in 2023. Even if the Cowboys have some question marks and Carolina has improved, the gap hasn’t closed that much.

Week 16: vs Arizona Cardinals

Win (6-9): After what looks to be a four-game gauntlet on paper, the Panthers finally get a relative breather, at least in theory. Arizona has a lot of exciting pieces on offense with a healthy Kyler Murray having Trey McBride, James Connor and the recently drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. by his side. They also have a lot of question marks on defense and are likely still a year away from making any real noise. Carolina gets back on track with a win in a close one.

Week 17: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Loss (6-10): The Panthers end the season with two divisional road games against the teams that will likely be fighting for the division title. Unless Baker Mayfield really was just a product of Dave Canales, it’s hard to see Carolina winning this game.

Week 18: at Atlanta Falcons

Loss (6-11): The Panthers aren’t good enough for me to pick them sweeping any of their divisional opponents.

Final thoughts: After winning just two games a season ago, this would represent a step in the right direction for a franchise that has several of those to take before they can establish themselves as any sort of real contender. Being 5-5 before the bye week would certainly be better than most expect but the front portion of the schedule has many winnable games on it.

Best case scenario: Bryce Young makes massive strides in his sophomore year and establishes himself as a legitimate NFL quarterback while the defense figures out how to replace Brian Burns and is a formidable unit that keeps Carolina in most games. The Chargers, Bears and Commanders are three losses that could be wins, meaning the Panthers could hover around eight or nine wins, which would have them in the playoff conversation late in the season. There is usually at least one team that shocks everyone, like the Texans last year.

Worst case scenario: Young fails to make any progress, leading to questions about his future and the defense doesn’t find a solution to the Brian Burns problem while leaving the offense little room for any inevitable growing pains. The Raiders and Broncos games are two examples of wins that could be losses, leaving the Panthers to hover around four wins, resulting in minimal improvement from last season and more questions to follow.