LAURINBURG — The 2021 hurricane season officially kicked off Tuesday, and meteorologists are predicting it will be an above-average year for the Atlantic Ocean.
“The National Hurricane Center has released its forecast,” said National Weather Service (Raleigh) Meteorologist Aaron Swiggett. “They are predicting the number of storms we see this year will be way above normal.”
According to Swiggett, the NHC has placed a 70% confidence level on its forecast.
“This year they are predicting we will see 13 to 20 named storms,” said Swiggett. “This is including six to 10 hurricanes with 74 mph winds or greater and three to five storms that will reach a category three or higher with winds of 111 mph and up.”
While the professionals are confident in their forecasts, Swiggett said these storms are very hard to predict and there are many variables that go into tracking and predicting them.
“Fragile may not be the exact word to use but that is how I would describe a hurricane when it is beginning to form,” said Swiggett. “For these storms to form, there are a lot of conditions that have to come together. Take wind shear, for example, if there are high wind shears above the forming storm, they will tear it apart before it can form and grow stronger.”
Swiggett also said water temperatures play a big role as well.
“As we move into the middle of the summer months the water surface temperatures will begin to rise,” said Swiggett. “The warmer water temperatures help the storms form and gain momentum.”
Although the NHC is predicting an active season, it is impossible to know where these storms will pop up or where they will travel beforehand. However, according to Swiggett, once the storm has formed, the NHC uses multiple sources and equipment to watch them and predict where they will travel to.
“It is important that those who are potentially in the path of one of the storms should pay close attention to the forecasts and predicted paths,” said Swiggett. “Social media is a good way for those watching the storms to stay informed. The NHC will update their forecasts and storm information to help keep people safe.”
Swiggett also said it is a good idea to have a NOAA radio to listen for watches and warnings during a storm.
“It is also a good idea to keep batteries on hand in the event there are power outages,” said Swiggett. “The better prepared you are to stay informed and ready, the better the chances of staying safe.”
Currently, there are no tropical storms or hurricanes formed, but the season is just beginning and Swiggett said residents should still keep an eye out and stay informed.
“The NHC has given out its five-day forecast and as for now there are no tropical weather threats through next week,” said Swiggett.
For Scotland County
Public Safety Director Robert Sampson said residents should be aware of the dangers these storms may bring to the area.
“Dangers that can impact our area during a hurricane can include, down trees and power lines, structural damage from high winds and residents living in low-lying areas or areas near water should be aware of possible flooding,” said Sampson.
Sampson also said it is always a good idea to begin preparations ahead of a storm.
“Things to think about when preparing for a storm are making sure you have enough medication to last a week or two, making sure you have non-perishable food items and having a full tank of gas or fuel in the event you are asked or need to evacuate your home,” said Sampson. “If you have safety concerns where you currently live, think about staying with family or friends away from the impacted area.”
According to Sampson, another good source of information about preparing for storms can be found at www.readync.org.
“If you have pets make sure you also have enough pet supplies to last a week or two,” said Sampson. “Make sure you keep batteries for flashlights and battery-operated lanterns in the event you experience a loss in power.”
JJ Melton can be reached at [email protected].
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