Peyton Manning won his third MVP award on Thursday, tying him with Brett Favre for the most all-time. Manning overcame two offseason knee operations to lead the Colts to nine straight wins and a 12-4 record this season.
It only seems right that I give you my picks for the four games, only to be picked on by you at the gym or the grocery store when I miss either three or four of them.
I'll also let you know that I've got Indianapolis facing off with Carolina in the Super Bowl. I'll wait to pick a winner in that game if and when both teams make it.
In an extremely rare scenario, all four road teams are favored in this weekend's wild-card round, but there is good reason for it. Here are my picks:
Baltimore at Miami
This has been a magical season for the Dolphins, who went from 1-15 to 11-5 and AFC East champions in Tony Sparano's first year as head coach.
A big part of Miami's success, at least early, was the Wildcat offense, orchestrated with tailback Ronnie Brown lining up in the shotgun, and fellow running back Ricky Williams in the slot. The Dolphins had opposing defenses scratching their heads with the Wildcat this season, but not Baltimore.
One of the most intellectual defenses of this decade, the Ravens snuffed out the Wildcat, holding Miami to four yards on five plays in their special formation during a 27-13 win in Week 7.
When Baltimore won the Super Bowl in 2000, they had what stands, statistically, as the greatest defense in the history of the NFL. The Ravens allowed less points in 20 games (after winning the Super Bowl) than the mighty Chicago Bears defense of 1985 allowed through 16. Baltimore crushed Miami 20-3 in the wild-card round that year also.
This year's Baltimore defense is not that good — even though they rank No. 2 overall behind Pittsburgh — but thanks to rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have the best balance between offense and defense that they've ever had. It will be too much for the Dolphins to handle.
Ravens 23,
Dolphins 14
Indianapolis at
San Diego
First of all, how in the world do the Colts, with their 12-4 record, end up having to travel to face the 8-8 Bolts? San Diego won the weak AFC West division, while the Colts finished behind 13-3 Tennessee in the AFC South, that's how.
These are two of the hottest teams in football: Indy has won nine straight games, while San Diego won its last four to surpass the fading Denver Broncos.
Peyton Manning won his third MVP award on Thursday, and, in many ways, this has been his finest regular season. Manning had a pair of surgeries on his knee in the offseason due to infection in a bursa sac, and he said when he looked at his knee for the first time, several days after the second operation, it was swollen grotesquely and looked like a person's brain had been operated on and their head left open.
Gross and scary. This was the reason Manning was so mediocre through the first seven games. That, and a slew of injuries had the Colts at 3-4 with games against New England, Pittsburgh and San Diego coming in the next four weeks. But Manning found his touch, the team got back to being at least somewhat healthy and the Colts will be going for their 10th straight win this weekend.
Indianapolis is also much better defensively than most people realize; they finished 11th in the NFL this season.
This game will be a near replica of the Colts' 23-20 win over San Diego in Week 12. Manning will make the most of every possession his team gets, as always.
Colts 30,
Chargers 27
Atlanta at Arizona
Something happened to the Cardinals in the final third of the 2008 season. Arizona lost four of its last six games, including embarrassing losses to New England (47-7), Minnesota (35-14) and Philadelphia (48-20).
This team is staggering into the playoffs with a 9-7 record, but having a home playoff game for the first time since 1998 will be energizing for the Cardinals.
Atlanta has had a remarkable season with an 11-5 record, moving past two embarrassing debacles — the Michael Vick saga and the gutless quitting of rookie head coach Bobby Petrino with four games remaining in the 2007 regular season.
Atlanta has a rookie coach in Mike Smith, and a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan has been as close to flawless as a rookie QB can be this season, but I could see the pressure and intensity of his first playoff game getting to him.
Kurt Warner was being talked about as a strong candidate for MVP midway through the season. I think he'll have a big day throwing passes up to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin against the Falcons' secondary.
Cardinals 28,
Falcons 20
Philadelphia at Minnesota
Third-seeded Minnesota (10-6) gets a tough draw against the 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. The Eagles played well in the month of December, capping off the regular season with a 44-6 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys to earn the NFC's final playoff berth.
Andy Reid is a great coach, but he is too pass-happy at times, and it has cost his team ballgames that they easily would have won with a more balanced attack. This weekend brings about a true dilemma for Reid, who has been more dedicated to the run in the last month of the regular season.
Minnesota's stingy run defense, led by monstrous tackles Pat and Kevin Williams, could make it tough for the Eagles' ground game. It will be interesting to see what type of balance Philadelphia brings into this game.
Tavaris Jackson has played well at quarterback since being re-inserted as the Vikings' starter a month ago. When Brad Childress left his post to as Eagles offensive coordinator to become Minnesota's head coach three years ago, he drafted Jackson with visions of him becoming the next Donovan McNabb.
Jackson is no McNabb, and I don't believe he ever will be. Jackson has all the physical tools, but he is very limited as far as his ability to read defenses and go through his progressions.
This weekend, he faces a Philadelphia defense that comes at opposing quarterbacks from more angles than anyone. Jackson's mistakes will cost Minnesota the game.
Eagles 27,
Vikings 17
Michael Gilliland is sports editor of The Laurinburg Exchange. Write to him as mgilliland@laurinburgexchange.com
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